29 January 2016

My Predictions For Iowa


With the first presidential primary on Monday in Iowa, the race for Obama’s successor is about to begin. As things stand, three candidates are vying for the Democratic candidacy and amazingly twelve candidates still stand for the Republican candidacy.

Here’s how the candidates for both parties rank in the average of Iowa caucus polls (RCP)

Democrats

Hillary Clinton - 46.8%
Bernie Sanders - 44.3%
Martin O’Malley - 4.3%

Republicans

Donald Trump - 31.4%
Ted Cruz - 25.2%
Marco Rubio - 14.4%
Dr Ben Carson - 8.2%
Jeb Bush - 3.8%
Rand Paul - 3.6%
Mike Huckabee - 2.6%
Chris Christie - 2.6%
John Kasich - 2.2%
Carly Fiorina - 1.8%
Rick Santorum - 0.6%

Here are my predictions:

Democrats

1 - Bernie Sanders 
2 - Hillary Clinton
3 - Martin O’Malley

Republicans

1 - Ted Cruz
2 - Donald Trump
3 - Marco Rubio

Sanders’ momentum doesn't look to be slowing. He’s ahead in New Hampshire and the American people are starting to believe in his policies. He’ll attract the undecided voters which may allow him to beat Clinton’s conventional support. After O’Malley inevitably finishes third in the Democratic caucus, he’ll drop out of the race for presidency. His campaign never really got off the ground - His policies are far too conventional to really ignite any support.

Due to the amount of candidates in the running for the Republican candidacy, it may split the vote. However, as Trump only leads Cruz by six points and he isn't over 40 per cent himself, the vote will probably turn into a two-way race with those who don't want Trump to win, choosing the vote for the second favourite in order to keep Trump out. There are five or six candidates who may drop out after the first primary or primaries if they wait until New Hampshire.

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