6 February 2016

My Predictions For New Hampshire


My predictions for Iowa were almost spot on. Apart from Hillary beating Bernie by 0.3% (which is a virtual tie…) I predicted an O’Malley drop out, drop outs in the Republican camp and the top three places for the Republican nomination. New Hampshire is next up for the 2016 presidential candidates but this may be harder to predict. 

Here’s how the candidates for both parties rank in the average of New Hampshire polls (RCP)

Democrats

Bernie Sanders - 55.6%
Hillary Clinton - 38.9%

Republicans

Donald Trump - 30.7%
Marco Rubio - 16.4%
Ted Cruz - 12%
John Kasich - 12%
Jeb Bush - 9.1%
Chris Christie - 4.9%
Carly Fiorina - 3.9%
Dr Ben Carson - 3.3%

Here are my predictions:

Democrats

1 - Bernie Sanders 
2 - Hillary Clinton

Republicans

1 - Marco Rubio
2 - Donald Trump
3 - Ted Cruz

Even though Hillary won Iowa it was Bernie who came away stronger. His momentum will be carried into New Hampshire (which is a neighbouring state of his state of Vermont) and he’ll defeat Hilary convincingly. Hillary will play off the defeat as if it doesn't matter but this result could cause an upset in Nevada and South Carolina.

The Republican primary is so much harder to predict than the Democrats and Iowa. Trump is still ahead in the polls but he was also ahead in Iowa. Rubio will have gained much momentum as Cruz has. If Kasich, Christie and Fiorina don’t perform here, they may drop out before Nevada and SC. 

No comments:

Post a Comment