17 February 2016

Nevada (D) and South Carolina (R)

The New Hampshire primary wasn't really a shock. Bernie Sanders was leading in the polls ahead of the vote and he won convincingly. Trump too. The only shock came with John Kasich coming second. My prediction of Marco Rubio was completely wrong but in my defence I made the prediction before his robotic performance. Rubio’s campaign might be over because of that. 

Nevada is up next for the Democrats. The latest poll shows Clinton with a one point lead. So, we’re in for another close contest. Hillary’s camp are playing Nevada down and suggesting that Bernie will perform better than we think which suggests that their internal polling has Bernie performing better than they’d like. Bernie has the momentum behind him and it’s possible that he’ll win or it'll be another virtual tie. I only suggest this because he outperformed the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. However I’m not completely sure he can win Nevada.

For the Republicans, it’s South Carolina. Trump is expected to win again with Cruz on his tail. Jeb Bush has called his brother in to finally kick start his campaign but this may be a political disaster considering Dub-ya left office with an approval rating in the high 20s. Kasich has the Republican momentum and is looking to perform well again. Fiorina and Christie both dropped out after New Hampshire so, we are now left with 6 contenders…

I was in two minds about making predictions for these two states but I decided to anyway.


1 - Hillary Clinton
2 - Bernie Sanders


1 - Donald Trump
2 - John Kasich
3 - Jeb Bush

Bush has spent too much money to drop out now. He’s in it for the long haul. Ben Carson too is just there for the money he’s making from speeches. So, I don’t think anyone will drop out after South Carolina but I think Trump will win convincingly. Cruz didn't perform well in the recent debate.

A victory in Nevada would be amazing for Bernie. But, I can’t see it happening. (Maybe i'm just chickening out of making a ballsy prediction again) On a national level, the latest poll shows a tie. Bernie has finally closed the 60 point gap that he faced at the start of the campaign. He need to win Nevada to have any chance in South Carolina as he’s behind by 30 points there.

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