5 March 2016

Have Trump and Clinton Won After Super Tuesday?


After Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both opened up large leads over their rivals. The mainstream media has effectively called it for Hillary for the Democrats whereas their distaste for anti-establishment is shown again with their continuous rejection of Trump winning the Republican nomination. Both Rubio and Cruz are still within touching distance of Trump according to the GOP establishment and the mainstream media. The opposite is said for the Democratic side with the DNC and the media declaring that Bernie Sanders is out of the race. But what does the real race look like, can the outsiders still beat Trump and Clinton and, who will win in Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (D) , Kentucky (R) and Maine (R)?

Here’s how things currently stand:

Democrats


According to this, Hillary Clinton is way out in front. However, this is a trick that the mainstream media tends to do. They add the super delegates onto the delegate count in order to give her a more substantial lead. In fact, Bernie is in touching distance of Hillary with 3,267 delegates still left in play and 2,383 needed to win the nomination. It’s far from over. Especially with the major states such as California, Florida and New York all to come. (Bernie could win all three and is likely to) Moreover, Clinton won all of the southern states on Super Tuesday (as expected) but in the swing and Democrat states, Bernie won 3/4, losing Massachusetts by one delegate. 

Republicans


Trump looks likely to win the nomination but the race isn't over. Carson has now dropped out and, Rubio and Cruz are both within touching distance of Trump as there are still 1,762 delegates left to fight for with 1,237 needed to win. Trump won a convincing number of states on Super Tuesday with Cruz only winning his home state, a neighbouring state and Alaska. Rubio only won Minnesota. The GOP establishment even took failed Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney out of the basement as a failed attempt to derail Trump’s campaign. 

There’s a common theme here: Both party’s establishments do not want the anti-establishment candidates to win the nominations. Neither does the establishment media. Which is why we see them declare it to be over for the Democrats and far from over for the Republicans. 

Saturday 5th March sees a handful more states choose their preferred nominations. For the Democrats it’s:

Kansas = 33 delegates
Louisiana = 51 delegates
Nebraska = 25 delegates

Both Kansas and Louisiana will go the way of Clinton. They’re both southern states and she’s the more conservative candidate in Republican territory. Nebraska could go either way but Bernie is more likely to win due to his performance on Super Tuesday; winning the coin toss states.

For the Republicans it’s:

Kansas = 40 delegates
Kentucky = 46 delegates
Louisiana = 46 delegates
Maine = 23 delegates

This could be a clean sweep for Trump. However I think he’ll win 3/4 with Kasich or Rubio winning Maine. There’s a hefty number of delegates up for grabs here and if Trump wins all four, his lead opens up like the Grand Canyon. Rubio needs to perform well, seeing as he is the GOP’s race horse.

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